Cubs Prospect Watch

[DMBZeppelin]

Read a couple things on the Tribune website. Thought they were worth posting. I wasn't sure where to post it. So instead of making multiple threads I figure it's a good idea to have a thread talking Cubs prospects.

[DMBZeppelin]

Cubs prospect Vitters building on success
By Mark Gonzales

MESA, Ariz. — Returning to the Arizona Fall League after a second stint at Double-A Tennessee might have put Josh Vitters back on track.

The Cubs' first-round pick in the 2007 draft continues to show improvement at the plate after a tough 2010 season. Vitters, 22, is batting .328 with 10 RBIs in his first 14 games for the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League.

The success is a continuation of his 2011 season at Tennessee, where he batted .283 with 14 home runs and 81 RBIs in 129 games.

Vitters looked at his return to Tennessee as a major step in his development while not getting wrapped up in the fact several players in his draft class already have reached the majors.

"It was a great experience to play there again," Vitters said last week. "It's a great league (Southern League) to play in. I feel the competition there is as good as any other league there is. I was somewhat happy with how I performed there. I had definitely had some bad times, definitely had some good times. It was definitely a learning experience."

After batting .223 with a .292 on-base percentage in 63 games with Tennessee in 2010, there apparently was plenty for Vitters to learn.

"I wouldn't say there was one (specific) thing," Vitters said. "I think I just matured a bit, as far as my game goes. I learned to read pitchers a little better, how to have a better mental approach during the game and before the game. Those things helped me pick up on what I needed to learn."

Vitters struck out only 54 times in 449 at-bats as the result of improved pitch selection.

"I'm an aggressive hitter, and I always have been," Vitters said. "I'm just trying to make sure it's my pitch I'm swinging at — not the pitcher's pitch."

Vitters is aware a new set of eyes will be evaluating him with Theo Epstein, the new Cubs' president of baseball operations, overseeing a new administration.

"It's kind of a big deal with the Cubs' organization with everything going on," said Vitters, who has been with the Cubs since he signed out of high school in 2007. "It's definitely a big deal. But in a sense, it doesn't affect me because I still need to get better and be good enough to play in the big leagues every day."

With plenty of infielders on the Mesa team, Vitters hasn't started a game at third base, his natural position. Vitters has made seven starts at first base for Mesa and he played right field Thursday. Unfortunately for Vitters, he committed an error when a bloop single skipped past him.

But the Cubs aren't overly worried about Vitters' ability to play the outfield. He's playing positions to get more live at-bats.

"He will play third base in 2012," said Oneri Fleita, the Cubs' vice president of player personnel.

[DMBZeppelin]

Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus tweeting about the Cubs.

Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
#Cubs 1B Bryan LaHair keeps mashing in Venezuela, going 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles. Leads league in SLG (.787), third in OBP (.429)
1 hour ago

tioy11
@Kevin_Goldstein Brett Jackson starting LF next season?
27 Oct

Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
Not opening day, but at some point, and not necessarily left.
27 Oct

He answers a question that speaks well to our future:

miguelbenitez1
@Kevin_Goldstein How's the SD farm system? Have Hoyer and McLeod done good things with it?
26 Oct

Kevin_Goldstein Kevin Goldstein
Quite good; absolutely.
26 Oct

[DMBZeppelin]

Jim Callis from Baseball America. I was unaware of the PTBNL rule. I wonder if Vitters will be in the Top 10 when the Prospect Handbook comes out.

l2uff Michael Jimenez
@jimcallisBA if you're #cubs who are you 5 untouchables? #redsox
21 Oct

jimcallisBA Jim Callis
Jackson, Szczur, McNutt, Castillo, Rhee. 2011 #mlbdraft guys can't be dealt.
28 Oct

waldo7239117 Christian Wickersham
@jimcallisBA As a PTBNL they could and that could occur, but I don't see it tho.
28 Oct

jimcallisBA Jim Callis
Can't b/c have to name the PTBN within six months. @waldo7239117: As a PTBNL they could and that could occur, but I don't see it tho. #Cubs
28 Oct

[Trendy Bastard]

Great idea on the prospect thread.

Vitters may not be on pace as other first rounders from that draft, but he was also more raw than others in his draft class. He still has a very pretty swing but really needs to work on plate discipline. I still have high hopes that he'll eventually be a consistent contributor in the majors.

I'm not sure I agree with Jackson not starting the season with the Cubs. I think it all depends on his health and how he does in spring training. If he shows he's ready, I wouldn't at all be surprised that he gets the nod in CF on opening day.

As for the PTBNL issue, when it was announced that it was in fact a PTBNL to SD for Hoyer/McLeod, I was very happy knowing that none of our 2011 draftees cannot be dealt.

[DMBZeppelin]

Looks like the best thing the Cubs can do it just wait this out. Selig said he'd get involved on November 1st. I'm just glad it doesn't appear we'll lose anyone we want to build around.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/...-begin-all-mlb

By Buster Onley

9. Bud Selig believes the whole Theo Epstein compensation thing will drop in his lap. It's an interesting position for the commissioner to be in, and the guess here is that the Red Sox will get relatively little return -- in part because of the general effort to tamp down the perceived value of executives by baseball's central office. Let's say that Selig were to support the position of the Red Sox and give them major return -- two top prospects or right-hander Matt Garza, for example. That would reinforce the belief of some general managers that they are among the most underpaid folks in the game relative to the importance of their work for their respective franchises.

[DMBZeppelin]

Carpenter building toward future in Cubs' bullpen
By Mark Gonzales

MESA, Ariz. — Chris Carpenter wants to leave no doubt.

A second consecutive trip to the Arizona Fall League isn't hurting Carpenter's chances of making the Cubs' Opening Day roster.

Carpenter appears more comfortable after his first full season as a reliever, as evidenced by his recent dominance while pitching for Mesa in the AFL.

Carpenter has struck out 14 while walking only two in 10 2/3 innings for the Solar Sox. He struck out major leaguers Brandon Crawford of the Giants and Hank Conger of the Angels during a two-inning scoreless stint Wednesday against Scottsdale.

"I think (pitching) in the Fall League last year set me up for the big leagues this year," said Carpenter, who posted a 2.79 ERA in 10 appearances during a one-month stint with the Cubs at the end of the first half. "I feel very comfortable right now in the position, just having a year of being a reliever from switching to a starter, getting more comfortable and definitely got to mature quick when getting to the big leagues. I'm excited for the year to come up."

Carpenter, 25, was a starter through his first three minor-league seasons. But with a potent fastball once clocked as high as 100 mph, he and the Cubs appear to benefit more in a relief role.

"As a reliever, you have to use a lot of adrenaline to get ready," Carpenter said. "And when they call your name, it's time to get ready to get loose and get going. So that hasn't been a big issue for me. But for some people, to be a reliever, it's getting loose quickly. It can be an issue. It hasn't been for me."

There was a lot of anticipation that Carpenter would receive a promotion to the Cubs in September when 25-man rosters expanded. But Carpenter missed most of August because of an oblique muscle pull and pitched only twice for Triple-A Iowa in early September before his season ended.

Also, his ERA was a plump 5.91 in 32 appearances at Double-A Tennessee and Iowa, so there was plenty of work ahead in the AFL.

"You want to be honest with yourself about what you need to work on," Carpenter said. "I was honest with myself. I wasn't happy with my breaking ball this year, so I'm here to try to get it better."

With speculation still looming over compensation for Theo Epstein's departure from Boston to the Cubs, Carpenter would like to improve his own standing with the hope of staying in the organization.

"Hopefully I can impress the right people," Carpenter said. "I'm excited about what's to come for the Chicago Cubs, and I'm going to do everything I can to help them win."

[Trendy Bastard]

BA's top ten Cubs prospects

1) Brett Jackson, OF
2) Javier Baez, SS
3) Matt Szczur, OF
4) Trey McNutt, RHP
5) Dillon Maples, RHP
6) Wellington Castillo, C
7) Rafael Dolis, RHP
8) Junior Lake, SS
9) Josh Vitters, 3B/1B
10) Dan Vogelbach, 1B

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Rankings: Organization Top 10 Prospects: 2012 Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects

I'm surprised Dolis is so high.

[DMBZeppelin]

Callis scouting reports

1. Brett Jackson, OF Born: Aug 02, 1988 B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 210
Drafted: California, 2009 (1st round). Signed by: John Bartsch
Background: Undrafted out of high school, Jackson went to college at California, impressed scouts in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2008 and became a first-round pick the following June. The Cubs believed he had the best bat speed in the 2009 draft, yet were able to get him with the 31st overall pick because teams worried whether he could make consistent contact. Signed for $972,000, he has struck out 320 times in 296 minor league games, but that hasn't kept him from being productive. He has earned in-season promotions in each of his three years as a pro, hitting 20 homers and stealing 21 bases while reaching Triple-A Iowa in 2011. He ended the year by batting .412 for Team USA at the World Cup in Panama. Only minor injuries have slowed him, with a strained ligament in his left pinky costing him three weeks last May and a foot issue relegating him to pinch-hitting duty at the Pan American Games.

Scouting Report: With solid to above-average tools across the board, as well as the ability to stay in center field, Jackson is a potential all-star. His power stands out the most, as he has the bat speed, loft and strength to drive balls out of the park to all fields. He has become much more selective at the plate than he was in college, waiting for pitches he can punish and taking walks when pitchers won't challenge him. Chicago would like to see him get a little more aggressive and attack more often early in the count. He's not a pure hitter, but he does have a compact swing and doesn't get himself out by chasing pitches out of the zone. Some scouts think Jackson's stroke can get too mechanical and believe he swings and misses too much to hit much better than .260 or .270. He pulls off pitches at times, and his strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30 percent in Triple-A. Jackson isn't a blazer, but he has plus speed that enables him to get the job done on the bases and in the outfield. He knows when to pick his spots as a basestealer, succeeding at a 76 percent rate in the minors. Likewise, he gets good jumps and takes nice routes in the outfield. He has played all three outfield positions in pro ball, and his average, accurate arm is enough for right field if he eventually moves to a corner. His steady demeanor and work ethic are assets that have rubbed off on his teammates, such as 2007 first-round pick Josh Vitters.

The Future: Not only is Jackson the Cubs' top prospect, but he's also the only position player in the upper levels of the system ready to play regularly in the majors. They resisted the temptation to promote him during their disappointing 2011 season, in part because he doesn't have to be protected on the 40-man roster this offseason. With Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd due a combined $24.5 million in salaries in 2012, he could open the season in Triple-A if Chicago decides to give Tyler Colvin another chance. Even if that happens, Jackson should push his way to Wrigley Field in short order. He has the upside of Jim Edmonds at the plate, if not the same Gold Glove ability in center field.

2. Javier Baez, SS Born: Dec 01, 1992 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 180
Drafted: Arlington Country Day HS, Jacksonville, Fla., 2011 (1st round). Signed by: Tom Clark.
Background: Born in Puerto Rico, Baez moved to Florida in 2005 and batted .711 with 20 homers as a high school senior last spring. Though the Cubs desperately need pitching, they passed on several college arms to draft him ninth overall last June. He signed for $2.625 million at the Aug. 15 deadline.

Scouting Report: Baez had the best bat speed in the 2011 draft, prompting comparisons to Gary Sheffield and Hanley Ramirez. In terms of the 20-80 scouting scale, Chicago thinks Baez could develop into a 70 hitter with 65 power. He's still learning that he doesn't have to overswing to do damage. His arm strength gives him a third well above-average tool and may allow him to stay at shortstop. Baez is an average runner with average range who will have to find a new position if he loses a step, with third base perhaps the best long-term fit. Second base, right field and even catcher are other options. Overly aggressive and emotional at times, he'll need time to mature on and off the field.

The Future: Baez has the highest ceiling in the system and could move quickly. His bat eventually should fit into the No. 3 slot in Chicago's lineup and should provide enough offense for any position. He'll head to low Class A Peoria at age 19.

03. Matt Szczur, OF Born: July 20, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 195
Drafted: Villanova, 2010 (5th round). Signed by: Tim Adkins.
Background: The MVP of the 2009 NCAA Football Championship Subdivision title game, Szczur had NFL aspirations as a wide receiver. After initially signing him for $100,000 as a 2010 fifth-round pick, the Cubs paid him an additional $1.4 million last March to give up the gridiron. He ranked as the low Class A Midwest League's best defensive outfielder, played in the Futures Game and hit .368 in the playoffs as high Class A Daytona won the Florida State League title.

Scouting Report: Szczur is polished for a two-sport player. His plus-plus speed helps him hit for average, makes him a basestealing threat and allows him to run down balls from gap to gap. He has a short, quick swing and strength in his hands and wrists that could translate into average power once he gets more extension through the ball. Szczur's main needs are to get more patient at the plate and more aggressive on the basepaths. He has worked diligently to improve his arm strength from below average to solid. Coaches and scouts rave about his makeup as much as his tools.

The Future: After wearing down from his nonstop baseball/football grind in the second half, Szczur could be primed for a breakout. He'll start 2012 at Double-A Tennessee and could reach Chicago in 2013. He'll eventually push Brett Jackson to right field.

4. Trey McNutt, RHP Born: Aug 02, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 220
Drafted: Shelton State (Ala.) CC, 2009 (32nd round). Signed by: Jim Crawford/Al Geddes.
Background: A 32nd-round steal who fell through the cracks in the 2009 draft, McNutt reached Double-A in his first full pro season but symbolized the Cubs' system-wide pitching woes in his second. Between blisters on two fingers, bruised ribs sustained in an infield collision and bad luck with rain, he worked just 26 innings from mid-May to mid-July. Even when healthy, he battled his command and consistency.

Scouting Report: McNutt can hit 98 mph with his fastball, though he gets more life and locates it better when he works at 92-94. His power breaking ball, which breaks more like a curveball and has slider velocity, can be equally as devastating. He could use an offspeed pitch to keep hitters off balance, and his changeup is just a work in progress. He needs to worry about working down in the zone rather than trying to blow the ball by hitters.

The Future: McNutt remained inconsistent in the Arizona Fall League, and he could wind up as a late-inning reliever if he can't improve his changeup and command. If it all comes together, he could be a No. 2 starter, similar to what Chicago hopes for from 2008 first-rounder Andrew Cashner. Ticketed for a return to Tennessee, McNutt could finish 2012 in the majors.

5. Dillon Maples, RHP Born: B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 195
Drafted: Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C., 2011 (14th round). Signed by:Billy Swoope.
Background: One of the most talented and most unsignable high school pitchers in the 2011 draft, Maples slid all the way until the 14th round. He seemed likely to attend North Carolina, where he would have played baseball and kicked for the football team, before Chicago stepped in with $2.5 million at the signing deadline. His father Tim was a 1979 second-round pick who reached Double-A in the Orioles system.

Scouting Report: Maples has a pair of plus pitches in his heavy 92-96 mph fastball and hard curveball. There's little question about the quality of his arm, though many scouts worry about his mechanics. Though he's athletic, he has a non-athletic delivery with a short arm action and a stiff, upright finish. That could lead to problems with his command—he locates his curve better than his fastball—and stress on his shoulder. For their part, the Cubs don't have any significant concerns and won't make any major adjustments. They'll have him focus on improving his fastball location and developing a changeup.

The Future: Maples has enough weapons to succeed in low Class A when he makes his pro debut in 2012. As with Trey McNutt, his changeup and command will determine whether he reaches his ceiling as a No. 2 starter or becomes a late-inning reliever.

6. Welington Castillo, C Born: Apr 24, 1987 B-T: R-R Ht.: 5-10 Wt.: 210
Signed: Dominican Republic, '04 Signed by: Jose Serra.
Background: The Cubs always liked Casδillo's arm and power potential, but a questionable work ethic slowed his progress and led to a .232/.275/.386 Double-A performance in 2009. He improved his effort and conditioning, leading to strong seasons and big league callups the last two years. Thumb and hamstring injuries limited him to 79 games in 2011.

Scouting Report: Castillo has 29 homers in 144 Triple-A games, with his power coming more from strength than bat speed. He doesn't give away as many at-bats as he used to, but his impatient approach will prevent him from hitting for a high average. Castillo has well above-average arm strength and a quick release. He threw out 31 percent of basestealers in 2011, an acceptable rate though a career low. His receiving and game-calling draw mixed reviews, but he has improved. He has next to no speed.

The Future: Castillo should serve as Geovany Soto's backup in Chicago in 2012. Soto is talented but also inconsistent and getting more expensive, and Castillo will get the chance to show what he might provide as a cheaper alternative.

7. Rafael Dolis, RHP Born: Jan 10, 1988 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 215
Signed: Dominican Republic, '04. Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion.
Background: The Cubs love to try failed position players on the mound, and their success stories include former catchers Carlos Marmol and Randy Wells. They signed Dolis as a shortstop but made him a pitcher before he arrived in the United States in 2006. He hurt his elbow in 2007 and missed 2008 following Tommy John surgery, then claimed a spot on the 40-man roster by hitting 101 mph during instructional league in 2009.

Scouting Report: Dolis reminds scouts of Marmol, and the similarities became more striking when Dolis became a full-time reliever in 2011. He can make hitters look silly with a 93-100 mph fastball with heavy sink and a mid-80s slider with hard bite. His stuff should have played up in shorter stints, but Dolis' strikeout rate dipped to a career-low 5.9 per nine innings. That's because he focused so much on his command, his biggest shortcoming, that he pounded the bottom of the strike zone and generated groundouts rather than strikeouts. He has a clean, high three-quarters delivery that gives him good downward plane with his pitches, but he still needs to throw more strikes.

The Future: A potential closer if he improves his command, Dolis made his major league debut in late September. He figures to get some Triple-A experience at the start of 2012.

8. Junior Lake, SS Born: Mar 27, 1990 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 215
Signed: Dominican Republic, '07. Signed by: Jose Serra.
Background: Lake is three days younger than fellow Dominican Starlin Castro, whom he teamed with in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2008. While Castro has spent the last two years starring in Chicago, Lake has yet to find success above high Class A. The Cubs hope his breakout performance in the Arizona Fall League is a sign of things to come.

Scouting Report: Lake has some of the flashiest tools in the system, starting with what might be the strongest infield arm in the minors. His bat speed and strength give him above-average raw power to all fields, though his lack of patience and tendency to chase breaking pitches undermine him at the plate. After losing a step in 2010, Lake regained his plus speed underway and stole 38 bases in 44 tries. His range also has improved and he's doing a better job of anticipating plays at shortstop, but he may be too big for the position. His hands are fine for the infield, and he ultimately may wind up as a third baseman or right fielder.

The Future: Though he remained impatient and tailed off toward the end of the fall, Lake's AFL success is encouraging. If he can build on it, he'll find a job in Chicago at a position to be determined. His next task will be to solve Double-A pitching.

9. Josh Vitters, 1B/3B Born: Aug 27, 1989 B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 200
Drafted: Cypress (Calif.) HS, 2007 (1st round). Signed by: Denny Henderson.
Background: The third overall choice in the 2007 draft, Vitters hasn't developed as quickly as hoped since signing for $3.2 million. Nevertheless, he reached Double-A at age 20 and had a solid season when he repeated the level in 2011. Some scouts think he has Jeff Conine potential at the plate, while others question whether he can be a quality big league regular.

Scouting Report: Vitters still shows the short stroke, bat speed, strength and ability to barrel the ball that made him the No. 3 pick. He recognizes pitches well, makes consistent contact and uses the whole field. However, he has yet to develop the patience to draw walks and lay off pitches he can't punish. His 22 walks in 2011 represented a career high. Vitters has shed a reputation for being laid-back and has worked hard to improve his defense. He has a solid arm but fringy quickness, speed and range. He topped Double-A Southern League third basemen with 21 errors in just 100 games. He also saw time at first base during the season and in the outfield in the Arizona Fall League.

The Future: He still could be Chicago's third baseman of the near future, but so could Javier Baez, Junior Lake, D.J. LeMahieu and Ryan Flaherty. The Cubs don't have an obvious starter for 2012, which Vitters will begin in Triple-A.

10. Dan Vogelbach, 1B Born: Dec 17, 1992 B-T: L-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 250
Drafted: Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla., 2011 (2nd round). Signed by: Lukas McKnight.
Background: Bryce Harper added to his legend when he blasted a 502-foot homer at the 2009 Power Showcase, a high school homer run derby. Vogelbach surpassed that by launching a 508-foot shot while winning the 2010 event, showcasing the power that earned him $1.6 million as a second-round choice a year later. He and Twins sandwich pick Hudson Boyd led Bishop Verot High (Fort Myers, Fla.) to the Florida state 3-A championship last spring.

Scouting Report: Vogelbach's plus-plus raw power is all the more impressive because it comes to all fields and he generates it with a very loose, effortless swing. His rhythm, patience and pitch recognition give him the chance to hit for average as well. Vogelbach's bat will have to carry him because he lacks athleticism and speed. He has gotten in better shape since carrying 280 pounds on the showcase circuit in 2010, but he may never be more than an average defender and won't be a factor on the bases. He takes pride in his defense and is working to improve his footwork around the bag.

The Future: The Cubs would love to see Vogelbach drop to 240 pounds before he reports to spring training. A potential middle-of-the-order threat, he has enough polish at the plate to make the jump to low Class A in 2012.

[Trendy Bastard]

Baseball America updated their top 10 prospects lists for all 30 teams on January 31, 2012:

1. Brett Jackson, OF (1)
2. Javier Baez, SS (NA)
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (NA)
4. Matt Szczur, OF (7)
5. Trey McNutt, RHP (3)
6. Dillon Maples, RHP (NA)
7. Welington Castillo, C (17)
8. Rafael Dolis, RHP (9)
9. Junior Lake, SS (27)
10. Josh Vitters, 3B/1B (5)

Rizzo bumped Dan Vogelbach out of the top 10 and slid Szczur through Vitters on down a spot.

* 2011 rankings are in parenthesis.

[Trendy Bastard]

Rizzo has two home runs in the past two games. A three run shot last night, and a two run shot tonight.

Brett Jackson is also tearing it up at Iowa.

[Trendy Bastard]

Make that three home runs for Rizzo in the past two days.

[Trendy Bastard]

Rizzo with another home run tonight, his fourth on the season.

First overall pick, Javier Baez, hit a three run homer earlier in extended spring training. He stood for a few seconds, admiring his shot. That didn't sit well with the Angels' coaching staff, nearly causing some sort of brawl. They told him to run the bases. Once he crossed the plate he yelled, "I can do whatever the fuck I want". Other Cubs draftee, Rock Shoulders, had to hold him back.

Not exactly what you like to see from the new guy, but I do love his stats so far.

[Trendy Bastard]

Chalk up another for Rizzo. He hit his 5th of the season, and it's his 2nd 2-HR game so far.

[zodious]

That's disgusting... He should be promoted to try big league pitching!