11/12 Offseason: Fixing the Cubs

[DMBZeppelin]

Looking at the Cubs payroll situation. It's not as bad as I thought.

We currently have $72.6 million in salary commitments for 2012.

Soriano $19 million, Zambrano $19 million, and Dempster $14 million make up $52 million of that $72.6 million. The only cost not accounted for are arbitration players Baker, Garza, Soto, Hill, Wells, and DeWitt. None of these guys outside of Garza should break the bank.

Obviously Zambrano is gone. If we could get the Marlins to pay like $8 mil of the $19 not only would that be fair, it's not as if Zambrano is terrible, it should offset most of what Garza gets in free agency.

Cubs will likely spend between $30-60 mil this off-season. At least $30 because I doubt we go under $100 mil. Though we could always just cut Soriano and spend essentially $57 mil on him this year and take the payroll up to $110.6 mil for the season. Screw spreading it out. Though if we can trade him to an AL team to DH and even if we pay like 90% any money we save is a bonus.

Regardless of what we do with the three albatrosses. I think we need to be Tampa Bay smart and sign Castro to 4-5 year deal and have him cost controlled. He stands to make a ton in arbitration after this year. We could save ourselves millions in the long run.

With whatever money we spend. At the moment it looks like we'll have:

Infield: (6) Castro, Barney, Baker, DeWitt, LeHair, Lemahieu
Outfield: (6) Soriano, Jackson, Byrd, Campana, Colvin, Montanez
Catchers: (2) Soto, Hill
Pitchers: (11) Garza, Dempster, Wells, Cashner, Samardzija, Marmol, Marshall, Russell, Mateo, Caridad, and Coleman

Rodrigo Lopez and Ramon Ortiz were here on minor league deals. So I don't know how that works, but I think we can cut them at no cost.

I think we should give serious consideration to trading Marmol depending on what direction we go. Plus it might not be a bad thing to test Cashner out as closer. We need to take it easy with his shoulder, but I would like to see him get a chance to start down the line.

If we can get Wood back on the cheap we should go that route. His stats were ok. Stick him in middle relief. We really need to move Byrd to let Jackson and Colvin play everyday.

Depending on what moves Theo and Hoyer pull off with the bad contracts. Even if we do nothing at all. It's entirely possible we could make a run at Prince Fielder. Not only do we have the money. Fielder will be 27 at the start of next season. Meaning he'll probably see another contract even if you sign him for 6-7 years. The only concern will be how he'll age with his weight. Even if you target 2014 as "lets shoot to contend this year." Fielder would be 29 going into the start of that season. Not to mention I think Teixeira in New York, Gonzalez in Boston, Cabrera in Detroit, and Howard with the Phillies. Not to mention Pujols may be the number one option for a few teams. There's not going to be a lot of teams where he fits payroll wise. That was one of the reasons Gonzalez went to Boston. There wasn't a market for the type of contract he wanted. I'm perfectly fine if we don't go after Fielder. I want nothing to do with Pujols. Fielder is young enough to possibly warrant it.

Dempster and Zambrano are in the last year of their deals. So that money is off the books in 2013. It will just be down to Soriano. If we don't spend the money on Fielder or something like that. I really hope we spend it on just paying Soriano off this season. Get everyone off the books going into 2013.

I might also trade Marmol and Soto. Marmol is 29 and will never figure it out. I believe based on his talent some pitching coach will believe he can fix him. He should get us a decent prospect back.

Plus if you throw in Marmol's $7 mil with the other 3. Together they make $59 of the $72.6 mil. Byrd makes the biggest remaining chunk at $6.5, but I think he's moveable on an expiring deal.

We should package Zambrano and Soto together to the Marlins. Would probably get a better return as long as we pay a portion of Z's salary. I'm sure Ozzie would love to have them both. I don't think the Marlins have a good catcher. Soto only made $3 mil last year and I doubt he'll get anymore in arbitration this year. I'm just ranting but I do think Theo can re-shape this team quickly all things considered.

[Trendy Bastard]

I'm not so sure about trading Marmol or Soto this offseason. Both are coming off bad seasons, so their value is much less than what it could be. Soto is a bounce back candidate, and I think Marmol just really missed Rothschild. I think a pitching coach that actually knows what he's doing should be able to right him. However, if we could swing a deal with the Marlins packaging Zambrano, Soto, and some cash for say, Logan Morrison and a prospect, I'd be for it.

Onto Soriano. Of course dealing him to an AL team would be ideal, even if we have to pay 90% of his contract. I just don't think we can afford to get rid of him and Byrd. I'm not sure Colvin has any future as a starting outfielder. Of course he was terribly mismanaged this season, but his rookie season was also very overrated, in my opinion. Couple that with the rookie Jackson coming up, I don't think it would be wise to deplete our OF depth.

Pitching should be priority number one this offseason. Besides Garza, the rotation is pretty much empty. Dempster definitely could opt out and test the market. He loves it here in Chicago, and he's getting paid a very nice salary for next year, but after C.J. Wilson, the market is very thin on SP. Zambrano will not be pitching here next season. He'll get dealt. Wells wasn't as effective this year as he has been in the past. Cashner is likely to stay in the pen next season. Samardzija will likely get a shot in spring training. We sure as hell don't want to see the three-headed meatballer in Coleman/Davis/Lopez. I fully expect the team to go hard in trading for a number two type.

Fielder, I think, is a very realistic option this winter. With Ramirez taking a walk, we won't have any big bats in the lineup. I don't really want him because of the contract he's going to command, but you have to start building around somebody besides Castro. I still think Pujols is going to stay put, which I don't mind at all because his new contract is going to handcuff the organization for quite some time. I loved Pena's glove. He wouldn't be a terrible option as a stop gap until another FA 1B comes along, or Vogelbach is ready.

All in all, I'm going to soak in the press conference tomorrow, and then get ready for this new FO to get to work.

By the way, I moved these two posts into it's own thread. Mostly because I think the subject of the posts kind of defer away from the Epstein subject. I also think this is a good starting point for us Cubs fan to discuss the possibilities of this offseason.

[DMBZeppelin]

I'm not so sure about trading Marmol or Soto this offseason. Both are coming off bad seasons, so their value is much less than what it could be. Soto is a bounce back candidate, and I think Marmol just really missed Rothschild. I think a pitching coach that actually knows what he's doing should be able to right him. However, if we could swing a deal with the Marlins packaging Zambrano, Soto, and some cash for say, Logan Morrison and a prospect, I'd be for it.

Even if we have to wait till the trade deadline to move them I'd still do it. Just because eventually they won't be young guys with upside. Once Marmol hits 30 I'm sure people will view him as a guy who just never developed control. What if they don't bounce back? At least if we move them in the off-season some team may think they have a chance to bounce back. I'm not saying we should move them just to move them. Just that we should explore it.

Onto Soriano. Of course dealing him to an AL team would be ideal, even if we have to pay 90% of his contract. I just don't think we can afford to get rid of him and Byrd. I'm not sure Colvin has any future as a starting outfielder. Of course he was terribly mismanaged this season, but his rookie season was also very overrated, in my opinion. Couple that with the rookie Jackson coming up, I don't think it would be wise to deplete our OF depth.

I'm sure not sure where we'd play Byrd if we call up Jackson. I'm also unsure about Colvin, and for that I blame Quade. Hendry even traded Fuk for the sole purpose of getting Colvin regular playing time. Besides jerking him around all year we never just said "You're going to play right field and start everyday. Don't worry about getting benched if you go 0-4 just play." 2011 was a waste of a year. It could have been a situation where we know exactly what Colvin was all about. Now I feel there's still a mystery to the extent of his ability. Depending on the direction of the team. I'm fine with using 2012 as year where you find out about a couple of the young guys.

Pitching should be priority number one this offseason. Besides Garza, the rotation is pretty much empty. Dempster definitely could opt out and test the market.

I don't see that happening, but I'd be pretty happy. One more bad contract off the books. If he opted out I'd be all for signing him to a 3-4 year deal. Just not at $14 mil per.

He loves it here in Chicago, and he's getting paid a very nice salary for next year, but after C.J. Wilson, the market is very thin on SP. Zambrano will not be pitching here next season. He'll get dealt. Wells wasn't as effective this year as he has been in the past. Cashner is likely to stay in the pen next season. Samardzija will likely get a shot in spring training. We sure as hell don't want to see the three-headed meatballer in Coleman/Davis/Lopez. I fully expect the team to go hard in trading for a number two type.

I think if Dempster opts out that opens up the possibility of a CJ Wilson. I hope whoever we do sign they're serviceable and we don't overpay.

Fielder, I think, is a very realistic option this winter. With Ramirez taking a walk, we won't have any big bats in the lineup. I don't really want him because of the contract he's going to command, but you have to start building around somebody besides Castro. I still think Pujols is going to stay put, which I don't mind at all because his new contract is going to handcuff the organization for quite some time. I loved Pena's glove. He wouldn't be a terrible option as a stop gap until another FA 1B comes along, or Vogelbach is ready.

I hope they do go after Fielding depending on his contract demands. There's only so many teams who could really offer what we can. If that doesn't work I'm fine with bringing Pena back for a year or two. I'm not sure I'm sold on Vogelbach as a long term options, but we'll see.

All in all, I'm going to soak in the press conference tomorrow, and then get ready for this new FO to get to work.

I just hope they ask Theo quality questions. I want to learn about the structure of the front office, what his plans are this off-season, and have they fired Crane Kenney yet.

By the way, I moved these two posts into it's own thread. Mostly because I think the subject of the posts kind of defer away from the Epstein subject. I also think this is a good starting point for us Cubs fan to discuss the possibilities of this offseason.

Probably a good idea. I didn't mean to write a book with that post, but it just kind of turned into one. I'm really anxious for free agency to start.

You think we gamble and pick up Ramirez's option? He said he'd decline it, but you never know if the Theo hiring would change his mind. I'd love to get compensation picks for him.

[Trendy Bastard]

At least if we move them in the off-season some team may think they have a chance to bounce back. I'm not saying we should move them just to move them. Just that we should explore it.

If we can get a good haul out of either, then sign me up. I just don't think anyone is going to offer much for either. I don't want to have to watch them find success with another team unless we got good value for them.

I'm sure not sure where we'd play Byrd if we call up Jackson. I'm also unsure about Colvin, and for that I blame Quade. Hendry even traded Fuk for the sole purpose of getting Colvin regular playing time. Besides jerking him around all year we never just said "You're going to play right field and start everyday. Don't worry about getting benched if you go 0-4 just play." 2011 was a waste of a year. It could have been a situation where we know exactly what Colvin was all about. Now I feel there's still a mystery to the extent of his ability. Depending on the direction of the team. I'm fine with using 2012 as year where you find out about a couple of the young guys.

To me it depends on the new manager (or *gulp*, Quade comes back) on what happens with Colvin/Byrd. If the FO decides to punt 2012, I can see Byrd getting dealt if Soriano doesn't find a new home, for Colvin to get RF every day. If they decide they are going to try and compete, I can see Byrd and Colvin platooning in RF. I can also see Colvin having a terrible showing in the spring, earning himself a demotion. I guess I just don't see how we could deal both Soriano and Byrd. We'll be left with Jackson and Colvin. Then who? LaHair? Montanez? Campana? I don't think any of those three should ever sniff a starting spot.

I think if Dempster opts out that opens up the possibility of a CJ Wilson. I hope whoever we do sign they're serviceable and we don't overpay.

I want nothing to do with the contract Wilson is going to command. I'd much rather have Dempster back for a few years.

I hope they do go after Fielding depending on his contract demands. There's only so many teams who could really offer what we can. If that doesn't work I'm fine with bringing Pena back for a year or two. I'm not sure I'm sold on Vogelbach as a long term options, but we'll see.

The only problem with Pena is, they are going to be seeking more than two years for a contract. This year he was supposed to build his value up. Didn't exactly go that way, I just don't see him settling for another short contract. I could get on board for five or six year deal on Fielder. But every year I'd be nervous that his weight was going to catch up with him. And regarding Vogelbach, I think he's got a real nice swing for his age. The only reason he was drafted in the second round was because everyone thought he'd be impossible to sign. Funny what a million bucks can do.

You think we gamble and pick up Ramirez's option? He said he'd decline it, but you never know if the Theo hiring would change his mind. I'd love to get compensation picks for him.

I think they do. I don't believe you can offer arbitration if you decline his option. Theo and company is all about stockpiling draft picks. I also think that Ramirez knows he's the best third baseman on the open market this winter. He's going to get a nice deal elsewhere. Why risk it? He could have a bad season, or get injured, and ruin any chances for next winter.

[DMBZeppelin]

To me it depends on the new manager (or *gulp*, Quade comes back)

Only way Quade is back is if our future manager is under contract for another year. They can wait it out with Quade. Why pay two managers next season if neither is the answer?

I guess I just don't see how we could deal both Soriano and Byrd. We'll be left with Jackson and Colvin. Then who? LaHair? Montanez? Campana? I don't think any of those three should ever sniff a starting spot.

To me you get rid of Soriano because he's just terrible in the field. Byrd might actually have value to a team going for it this year. So if you can get something go for it. I never want to see LaHair in the outfield again. He just has zero range. I'd go with Jackson, Colvin, and Campana everyday. Depending if they view Jackson's future in right or center. I might go:

LF - Colvin
CF - Campana
RF - Jackson

Sign someone on the cheap. Maybe bring bad Reed Johnson on a minor league contract to be a backup. LaHair can be a break glass for emergency option.

[Trendy Bastard]

An outfield of Jackson, Colvin, and Campana everyday has quite the possibility of disaster. Hanging on to Byrd to finish out the season if Soriano were to get dealt or released, would be vital, in my opinion.

Campana should be nothing more than a late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement. He can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

[DMBZeppelin]

An outfield of Jackson, Colvin, and Campana everyday has quite the possibility of disaster. Hanging on to Byrd to finish out the season if Soriano were to get dealt or released, would be vital, in my opinion.

Campana should be nothing more than a late inning pinch runner/defensive replacement. He can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

Offensively it could be bad, but it be the best defensive outfield we've had in a while. We're more likely to win with pitching and defense next year. We won't have the bats to out slug people.

[DMBZeppelin]

What if Maddon becomes available?
By Phil Rogers

Andrew Friedman, the supposedly unavailable general manager of the Rays, recently went for dinner in downtown St. Petersburg, Fla., with Arte Moreno, owner of the Angels. Dan Feinstein, the Rays' director of baseball operations, just left to join the Athletics.

This begs a question: Could Joe Maddon figure into Theo Epstein's considerations as he weighs the Cubs' managerial situation?

Twenty-nine teams probably would offer Maddon a job if they had an opening, and Epstein is especially well acquainted with him. He was the other finalist when Epstein hired Terry Francona, and then he admired him from across the field during the head-to-head battles between the Red Sox and Maddon's Rays the last six seasons.

Maddon is under contract for 2012, however, and has said publicly he and Friedman plan to remain working together with the Rays, who have been frustrated with poor attendance and lagging revenue while captive to a Tropicana Field lease that runs through 2026.

"For the last six years it has been a phenomenal working relationship," Friedman said after the season ended. "I would expect and assume we're going to work together for a long time."

Oh, yeah, then why is he dabbling with the Angels? Has owner Stuart Sternberg privately told his staff he would understand if they wanted to look for greener pastures?

Cubs incumbent Mike Quade is the only manager Epstein will comment on, beyond confirming that Ryne Sandberg impressed him while he was conducting a search for a Triple-A manager last year and understands he's "a good man.'' The Cubs are not conducting a managerial search at this time as Quade's still in the picture to return in 2012 for the second season on his two-year contract.

Whether Quade returns might hinge as much on Maddon's situation as on what Epstein thinks after he gets to know Quade. It's highly unlikely that he's going to start a long-term partnership with a manager he inherited from Jim Hendry but Quade potentially could be a bridge to Maddon or someone else, including former Red Sox manager Terry Francona.

Bruce Bochy, who led the Giants to a championship in 2010, is in the same position as Maddon — a potential free agent after next season. And don't overlook that a little time away from baseball could reinvigorate Francona and allow Epstein a chance to consider him for the Cubs under a fresh light, not in the fallout of the 7-20 Red Sox September that set in motion the chain of events that eventually led Epstein to Chicago.

Then there's John Farrell, the former Red Sox pitching coach who managed the Blue Jays last year. Ben Cherington, Epstein's replacement in Boston, would love to get him out of his commitment in Toronto, but it's not happening. He's off limits after signing a three-year deal through 2013.

There has been some talk about Bud Black following Padres' GM Jed Hoyer to Chicago but that seems as unlikely as Farrell departing. Black had the Padres on the verge of making the playoffs in 2010, and in the middle of that season signed a contract extension that runs through '13 with options for '14 and '15.

But back to Maddon. Would he come to the Cubs? And if it's a chance that intrigues him — how could it not be with Epstein having access to Tom Ricketts' checkbook ? — could the presence of Dave Martinez accelerate the timetable?

Martinez, Maddon's bench coach, was considered by the White Sox and is currently a possibility for the Red Sox. He is a long-time resident of Safety Harbor, just north of Tropicana Field, and would be an excellent successor for Maddon.

If the Rays figure they are going to lose Maddon after next season, they wouldn't want to lose Martinez too. It's possible Friedman could step in and give Maddon a chance to talk to Epstein, although in that scenario the Cubs better be prepared to give up one of their biggest assets — Starlin Castro? — to get Maddon out of the remaining year on his deal.

While a reunion with Sandberg has sentimental appeal, how good would Cub fans feel if they somehow wound up with Epstein as the GM and Maddon as the manager?

Being asked to give up Castro should be a deal breaker. But what if Maddon could land in the Cubs' lap, compensation-free, after 2012? That's a scenario where keeping Quade for a year could make more sense than going with someone like Sandberg, unless Epstein is totally convinced he's his guy.

Epstein won't talk publicly on this subject but you can bet he and his just-officially-named top assistants — Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod — are spending more time on it than anything else.

[Trendy Bastard]

If we somehow landed Maddon, I would go absolutely nuts! I'm still in awe of landing Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod. Maddon would be icing on the cake.

[DMBZeppelin]

If we somehow landed Maddon, I would go absolutely nuts! I'm still in awe of landing Theo, Hoyer, and McLeod. Maddon would be icing on the cake.

I'd like Maddon as manager and try and get Sandberg on the staff. Not only because he's a promising managerial prospect and former Cub. Theo thought enough of him to offer him Boston's Triple-A job. I'd like to continue to see him grow in the Cubs organization. Maddon will be 58 years old heading into next season. How much longer will he be doing this? There's always the possibility he'd get hired before Maddon was gone, but I'd like attempting to groom the next guy on the bench. It make for a more seamless transition when Maddon left.

[Trendy Bastard]

I really want nothing to do with Sandberg coming in as a manager, so I agree with bringing in Ryno to be on the staff, regardless of who takes over the manager position. I'm just not sure he'll accept anything outside of manager, unfortunately. I assume this because of the reports that after Hendry hired Quade, he was offered to say at his old job with the Iowa Cubs and he turned it down and went elsewhere (Philly). Whether that's actually true, I don't know. And if it is, maybe he'll have a change of heart if they offer him a spot as bench/3rd base coach.

[DMBZeppelin]

I really want nothing to do with Sandberg coming in as a manager, so I agree with bringing in Ryno to be on the staff, regardless of who takes over the manager position. I'm just not sure he'll accept anything outside of manager, unfortunately. I assume this because of the reports that after Hendry hired Quade, he was offered to say at his old job with the Iowa Cubs and he turned it down and went elsewhere (Philly). Whether that's actually true, I don't know. And if it is, maybe he'll have a change of heart if they offer him a spot as bench/3rd base coach.

Sandberg wasn't offered the job till the backlash of the Quade signing. Sandberg was pissed because he found out he wasn't a serious candidate. Then both Philly and Boston really wanted him to be their Triple-A manager. He picked Philly for whatever reason. I guess all Philly coaches are coming back. So there's not a spot on the big league club. Sandberg is expected to try and get on someone's staff. I think he'd be a good bench coach. He's had lots of success with every team he's managed. Epstein said he's the most humble Hall of Famer he's ever met.

I trust Theo either way. If he knows Sandberg will be great than I have zero problem with whatever role they put him in. On the other hand if he knows he's a good minor league manager, but not major league ready. I know he won't hire him just to hire him. In fact if Theo were to hire Sandberg as manager that should tell you a lot. Because he's already gotten a million questions about him. Hiring Sandberg, Maddon, or Francona would have a huge impact on expectations that the Cubs may not want to bring on themselves. The last two because they're already great managers. Sandberg because he's a legendary Cub.

[love_that_reefer]

I really want nothing to do with Sandberg coming in as a manager.

I still don't understand this.

[Tobywan]

Of course, in the spirit of debate with assessments by other interested parties my local beat writers have to counter with theirs.

The first is from the Tampa Tribune, this guy has been writing about TB sports since I was actually young.


Loyalty will likely keep Friedman and Maddon in TB



From the ST Pete Times, John is much respected ad even takes his own time to post on local blogs with his own opinions. Recently he was trying to counter accusations by many fans that the local media hasn’t “defended” the fans that are being “bashed” by Sternberg and outside media over the poor attendance.



Friedman has more to give.



I agree with both (but what do I know, probably just another indefensible and stupid opinion), I don’t think there will be another exodus of personnel this off season. However, with the battle between the bay cities starting to gather steam it could be coming if there is no plan put in place for a new stadium.

This is what the off-season is for, wish lists, wishful thinking, what ifs and so forth. I think a good sign that the future might not be so bright is whether Maddon accepts or is even offered an extension.

Just one clarification though the Rays don’t play under a lease, it is a “user agreement”, which is in effect until 2026. However, as I have stated in other threads on the Rays forum the bonds will be paid off in (if memory serves) 2016. It is not as iron clad as the ST Pete camp wants everyone to believe.


Trendy, I am also perplexed at what appears to be distain for Sandberg.

[Trendy Bastard]

I still don't understand this.

I've got my reasons. We've already done the the rookie manager thing, and that didn't work out. Quade was as bad as Baker, maybe even worse. I've read articles that Sandberg likes to play small ball, and has bunted with his number three and four hitters in the past. This market is way too big to have a small ball minded manager. Another reason I don't want him hired as manager is because he'd be an impossible fire, without turning the fans against him. Cub fans were already upset when they didn't hire him last year, could you imagine the backlash if the signing didn't work out? I don't want to be like Boston and have to smear guys on the way out.