The Immediate Future of the Boston Red Sox

[Fishercat]

First my thoughts on Manny's value as a trade piece, then a quick look in to the future...TO THE YEAR 2000!

I think Manny would actually have value right now if he were raking...but if he were raking, the Sox (and the fans) still wouldn't want to deal him. For the first time in several years (IMO), Manny is somewhat close to market value. He's due 38 million over the next two years (18 this year and 20 in 2008) with options that are unlikely to be picked up. Now, that's not a bargain, but with guys like Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano getting a LOT of money this offseason, the 19 AAV doens't look bad. He's overpriced, but not as much as he was a few years ago when Vladdy signed on the cheap with the Angels and the market looked like it was deflating.

In addition, the length of the deal is also reasonable now. It's two years instead of four, and Manny's been a very consistant slugger (if not this year). Basically, he's not a bad trade chip right now. Also, the Red Sox have done really well, despite him hitting like an average OF or worse so far. That gives a psychological edge that the Sox could survive without Manny, at least to some fans, which is all the team needs.

Of course, that poor performance is a double-edged sword when we talk trade: who wants him. If the Sox couldn't get a legitimate package when he was a Top 3 hitter or whatever, what are they going to get now? Additionally, does John Henry really want to pay some team to take Manny after paying Atlanta to take Edgar Renteria? I doubt many teams could afford Manny straight up, and the ones who could are not teams we want Manny on as fans.

Oh, and he has those pesky 10-5 rights, which probably take out a bunch of good trade partners unless CHB decides to wait outside Manny's house with binoculars and write about how he is a horrible human being as he left the house three minutes later than he should have.

As for the future (near future, 5 years or less), what do the Sox have set. I think we can assume 1B is Youk's, DH is Ortiz, 2B is Pedroia, SS is Lugo, RF is Drew (if he doesn't crash). That's five of nine offensive positions. I have to assume Kotteras (C) and Ellsbury (CF) will get first crack at the positions when TPTB decide to boot CocoPena and Varitek decides to hang 'em up. We have no long term solution at 3B and there's nothing good on the FA market, so unless Youks decides to go back to 3B (then we find a new 1B, no small task for the team that has employed some pretty horrid options there before), there's no solution in sight. LF is up in the air: maybe a minor league OF will breakout to take it, maybe CocoPena will still be around to fight over it, but there are options there.

If we're looking for a Long Term Solutions in trade, I don't think we look for Crawford or Teixeira who will cost a lot of talent and money, maybe someone a little more reasonable (Is Edwin Encarnancion a good enough fielder for 3B? Would Adam Dunn be a realistic 1B for a year (move Youks to third for 2008) and then place him in LF if Manny leaves (I think he's a FA in 2008). I doubt Dunn would be as expensive as a Crawford or Teixeira as he is on a team who isn't competitive and he's already costing the Reds (who seem to have a small-ball guy at GM) some dough. I'd love Teix/Craw on the team, but to give up two-three future LTS for them?

For pitching, I think the Sox are a bit brighter. You figure Schilling could retire next year or after 2008. And who knows on Wakefield (who is under a perennial contract), but I think you can pencil him in until he doesn't want to do it anymore. But the Sox have Beckett and Matsuzaka under control for a while, who look to be promising. Lester looked very nice in his earlier outings. I'm doubting Papelbon leaves the closer role, but if he needs to, he can. Buchholz and Bowden look like good prospects as well. With pitching as expensive as it is now, I think the Sox did very well in preparing themselves. Relievers...who knows if MDC, EMart, etc. will ever pan out.

If I'm the Red Sox looking into the future, I call up Wayne Krivsky right now and see if you can steal Encarnancion (who Narron seems to dislike) or Dunn (who is eating up money and needs a 13m dollar option to stay next year.

My ideal 2009 Opening Day Lineup (in real terms)

C: Kotteras
1B: Youkilis
2B: Pedroia
SS: Lugo
3B: Ensberg/Glaus? (Haven't looked into 2009 FA 3B, all I know is that the 2008 class sucks with the Sox giving up the best one if A-Rod doesn't leave)
LF: Dunn
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Drew
DH: Ortiz
Bench: Who really cares? Preferably containing of a couple farmhands (Brandon Moss and David Murphy in the OF) and a couple solid utility IF/catchers (If Mirabelli surgically attaches a 61 foot rope to Wakefield...)

SP: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz/Bowden/FA (some great ones in 2009 if a couple don't re-sign)
RP: Papelbon, Okajima (if he's re-upped), a couple free agents, and a couple farmhands (Maybe Manny Delcarmen and Edgar Martinez)

[missionhockey21]

Trading Manny is a tricky situation, for many of the reasons you mentioned. Manny hasn't hit like you would expect and given the Red Sox surging thus far, that might make him seem expendable to the Red Sox nation (which probably caries a lot of weight with the FO for a player like him) but it also deflates his value. Its basically a double edge sword because trading him now would probably evoke less anger from the fanbase, but it wouldn't capitalize on his value and flip the scenario and we're looking at opposites. With only two years left, I think the market for him would be wider as the expectations would naturally be a little bit lower due to his performance but I imagine a lot of teams would be looking for a deal in which a large chunk of change would be picked up if any young talent would come back worthwhile or else they might be hoping for a less extreme Abreu deal.

And honestly, stay away from Dunn, you already have my Wily Mo. But seriously, Krivsky realizes the shallow state of the offensive depth which is why any rumors regarding trading an offensive piece has been few and far between (and mostly bogus.) He brought in a hitting coach essentially just for Dunn. Reds ownership remains insistent on competing, I am not denying the possibility for a move in the future but I personally don't see them trashing a team that could be competitive with the right moves (and no one can replace Dunn's level of production except possibly Bruce, but that is years away). I could see Encarnacion, Griffey and Votto all being used as trade bait before Dunn just based on what I've read and the feelings I get. Theo and crew you think would be interested though. Maybe I am being a bit too hopeful, but I think you're reading into the Dunn situation way too much as most do. It was Krivsky who came to Cincy, almost instantly giving Dunn that deal, bringing Dunn a hitting coach he hoped would turn him around and with improved defense, being in better shape and OPS'ing close to .920 it would seem odd to be in a desperate rush to go into firesale mode after locking up several players. Krivsky is competitive and while the Nationals trade was horrid, he has added to the youth to this team in a very positive way for the most part and with a talented (but shallow farm) I see the Reds clearing out prospects from the lower level a lot quicker than trading major league ready talent. There are a dozen Dunn rumors on blogs every year, nothing has ever seemed to come close to becoming more than just a rumor.

[realmofotalk]

It's funny how moves like trading Bronson Arroyo and spending $100 mil on Dice-K are in complete opposite from the New England Patriots' method of stocking a roster with moderately priced talent and team-first attitude.

[Fishercat]

I don't realistically expect to get Adam Dunn, that's more a pipedream than anything. And knowing Boston, this is what would happen

First Week (Dunn hits 3 HR): OMG WE LUV U DUNNIE!!!111
Next Week (Dunn goes 2-23 with 0 HR): GTFO

I still think that in the right situation, Krivsky would deal him, especially if he comes to next year and sees that Dunn would want way too much money to keep (especially if he realizes how poor the track records are for teams who have a lot of their money (percentage wise) tied up in one guy).

[Fishercat]

It's funny how moves like trading Bronson Arroyo and spending $100 mil on Dice-K are in complete opposite from the New England Patriots' method of stocking a roster with moderately priced talent and team-first attitude.

It is kind of funny, and I was thinking about how different these two teams really are, despite having two smart GMs at the helm. I personally attribute it to how different the sports are, with baseball having less of a "team emphasis" and no need to follow a cap, but I think it shows that any style can really work with the right breaks.

And I still say the Arroyo trade sucks ass, no matter what league it's in.

[missionhockey21]

I don't realistically expect to get Adam Dunn, that's more a pipedream than anything. And knowing Boston, this is what would happen

First Week (Dunn hits 3 HR): OMG WE LUV U DUNNIE!!!111
Next Week (Dunn goes 2-23 with 0 HR): GTFO

I still think that in the right situation, Krivsky would deal him, especially if he comes to next year and sees that Dunn would want way too much money to keep (especially if he realizes how poor the track records are for teams who have a lot of their money (percentage wise) tied up in one guy).

It really is up in the air what they could do with Dunn, I think a lot depends on where they finish this year. .500 record and Bailey has some impressive stars, with Votto looking poise to takeover at 1st, and Dunn with improvement over last year (at least a .920 ish OPS and continued improved D); I could see him staying a Red as they would look to compete next year. If the spiral continues and the Reds remain at the bottom and looking to be a top 5 draft pick next year, he could go for the right offer without question. Then again, package a few mediocre players and a decent prospect and he could be had if Krivsky goes back to drinking from the kool-aid he drunk from to make the Nationals trade.

[Fishercat]

Coco Crisp can hit almost as good as Royce Clayton and plays better defense. Can we have Felipe Encarnancion or whatever decent, underused MI/3B you have? Lowell's leaving soon.

We'll even give you Joel Pineiro and, if you throw in a nice piece like Ryan Freel (so we can put him in a backup role and misuse him), we'll throw in Kyle Snyder and his sub-Papelbon ERA (or at least close)

[missionhockey21]

Coco Crisp can hit almost as good as Royce Clayton and plays better defense. Can we have Felipe Encarnancion or whatever decent, underused MI/3B you have? Lowell's leaving soon.

We'll even give you Joel Pineiro and, if you throw in a nice piece like Ryan Freel (so we can put him in a backup role and misuse him), we'll throw in Kyle Snyder and his sub-Papelbon ERA (or at least close)

Sadly, I could see us jumping all over some inaccurate ERA's once again (when trying to use them to reflect player worth, ala Cormier and Majewski.)

[Fishercat]

Snyder's a solid pitcher, for a long reliever/spot starter, some deceptive stuff. Just misleading in that he isn't put in pressure situations

[missionhockey21]

Snyder's a solid pitcher, for a long reliever/spot starter, some deceptive stuff. Just misleading in that he isn't put in pressure situations

No, I actually like Snyder but Krivsky's eyes light up big at a low ERA. Snyder has good stuff, he's just not as good as the small sample size ERA would lead some to believe.

[Fishercat]

Oh, of course. He's a 5th starter/long guy at best.